Today is a do or die day for Bitcoin. There is no denying that we are in the middle of the severe bear market. Since we have witnessed another sell-off last night, it is only right to do another Bitcoin analysis in order to show you where we currently stand and where we may turn in the close future.
Bitcoin formation analysis
At the time of the press, Bitcoin’s price fluctuates around $6,800. Considering that the day’s low was at $6,500, this is a sign of potential bull rally. At least a temporary one.
Because, as we have already stated in the article published on November 22nd, there were two possible ongoing price movement formations. The descending triangle and the falling wedge.
The BitMEX perpetual futures BTC/USD daily chart above reveals that BTC has left the triangle. The recent overselling session has made the price break down from the $7,400 support level. Nevertheless, no matter how disastrous the trend is, Bitcoin still remains inside the falling wedge. While the “falling” part might be a bit misleading for our inexperienced readers, it is, in fact, a good thing considering the circumstances because the falling wedge is usually followed by a bullish reversal.
The second thing clearly visible on the chart above is that Bitcoin hasn’t seen positive buy vs. sell volume since September. Be that because of the lack of buyers or too many miners selling their BTC, the cumulative delta (the orange oscillator on the indicator beneath the chart) has been constantly negative since September 10th.
Short-term indicators analysis
Since the next 24 hours are crucial, it is vital to deduce some short-term indicators and their possibilities.
The last mini-surge happened exactly a month ago. Experienced traders could have predicted it by taking note of the RSI swing rejection visible on the chart below.
If the price finds $6,500 to be the new lower low, it is possible that Bitcoin repeats this. Yet, as stated, the next day or two will be crucial for the confirmation of the new swing. Therefore, if bulls manage to pull BTC from the oversell, it is quite possible to see something similar. However, this time the mini-pump would be towards $7,400. This way, the $7,400 level would turn from the support into resistance, marking the possible beginning of the next sell-off inside the falling wedge.
By now, perhaps all our readers understand how we are fond of Fibonacci numbers in general. Especially the time zones. Fibonacci time zones can reveal wondrous things. Even more so when analysts combine them with trend markings. This time, these magical blue vertical lines may be predicting the exact time of the next lower high. Perhaps even the point of wedge breakout.
See for yourselves…
Let’s zoom further in for a moment to quickly analyze the hourly instead of a daily chart. The 1-hour chart looks like Bitcoin found the lower low. Moreover, the MA cross indicator is close to forming a gold cross, signifying the swing change. This falls in line with the falling wedge premise perfectly since Bitcoin needs at least the stagnation of the bearish trend to reach another lower high.
Bitcoin analysis conclusion
The best hope for Bitcoin remains the possibility that it follows the falling wedge formation. However, the wedge is still wide and it is difficult to predict the exact point of breakout. Nevertheless, it looks to be imminent from this perspective. Still, as CoinSyncom already stated in the big price prediction technical analysis published on November 11th, we don’t see Bitcoin over $7,000 until the end of the year. This also concurs with the falling wedge formation.
Bitcoin halving will happen, approximately, on April 20th, 2020. Until then, Bitcoin should break out of the wedge. Therefore, just like it has historically been the case, the long-term reversal could bring much higher prices towards the end of 2020.
You should look elsewhere for investment advice since this isn’t it. Even if it looks like it, it’s not. Cryptocurrencies are known to be extremely volatile and risky speculations. Always do your own research. Consider consulting an investment professional prior to investing your money.